(Disclosure: hes a friend.) Nov. 8, 2022, Rural counties in Virginias 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. The results are displayed in Table 2. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. The reason we need to do what youre describing which is to go into places that werent available to us before is that we need this victory to be as big as possible. Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. Current House. 1.2 Close races. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. It seems as if Democrats arent really confident that Bidens economic agenda is really a selling point going into 2024. WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. Given the narrow size of recent Senate majorities, that underperformance is quite significant. Maggie Astor Ipredictelections.. Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. Unfortunately, the 60 seat goal is out of reach. Albert Sun This is not a time to be defensive. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Can Democrats Keep Control in Midterms? Does the Democratic Party have a liberal cultural answer to DeSantis? The tables below show the closest races, and the number of races leaning toward either party, in our estimates. . , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, a Democrat, was elected to a third term, holding off a strong challenge from a Republican newcomer. The Cook Political Report has updated its 2022 Senate outlook, with four races seen as more competitive than earlier in the year. Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. Lazaro Gamio Ignoring the jokes of Trumps August reinstatement, both Democrats and Republicans have started their ground work. Were getting results for ballot measures related to abortion and reproductive rights in Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. If DeSantis can energize the MAGA base while partially reversing the educational realignment that Trump ushered in, thats a major problem, no? Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin, in which their predicted victory margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be in play. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. , The Hillbilly Elegy author and Republican J.D. I think its still yet unarticulated and undeveloped. Republicans won just over half (17 of 33) of the open seat contests during these years. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Particularly in the 2 decisive Georgia Senate runoffs held in early January 2021, Donald Trumps visibility and highly publicized claims of widespread voting fraud involving absentee ballots may have served to motivate Democratic voters while suppressing turnout among some Republican voters concerned that their votes would not be accurately counted. In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. Lazaro Gamio The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. Most of the vote reporting so far is early, and Democrats are expected to win those votes by a large margin. Yet Democrats often refrain from challenging right-wing culture-warring, as if they believe those are losing issues. Nov. 9, 2022, J.D. Weve seen the lowest peacetime unemployment rate since World War II, the lowest poverty and uninsured rates in American history. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, and Joe Lombardo, the Las Vegas-area sheriff who was endorsed by Donald Trump. *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. Nov. 8, 2022, Arizona has multiple races featuring Republicans who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. The facts are that the country is better off. Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. Looking for He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. November 8 Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Results 2024 Senate races. John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. Nov. 14, 2022, With Senator Cortez Mastos victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. Lazaro Gamio RCP House Map Race Changes. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022, Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Im Fivey Fox! George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Continue with Recommended Cookies. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. Adjusted Poll Average. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. Overall, the candidate of the winning presidential candidate in the state won 156 of 174 Senate contests during these years, a success rate of just under 90%. The results in Table 2 show that the 3 variable model was quite accurate, explaining 84% of the variance in the outcomes of individual Senate contests. Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. Gretchen Whitmer's poll numbers have been more durable than other Democrats'. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate. Karen Tumulty: Biden defines the central question of the 2024 election. Maggie Astor As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. 3 See also. Michael Bennet and Patty Murray, respectively, to fall. Welcome to our. Nov. 9, 2022, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. The Republican argument looks today even more preposterous and ridiculous. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. Nov. 8, 2022, Kentucky, a solidly red state, reelected Rand Paul to the Senate. Heres the state of the closest races: These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. It was really a late-covid manifestation, and as covid has receded in peoples lives, the conditions that created that conversation have evaporated. California, Michigan, Kentucky and Montana also have abortion referendums on the ballot. Nate Cohn First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. Heres where we think votes remain. But so far, voters are rejecting an effort to deny abortion rights. , Don Bacon, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nebraskas Second Congressional District. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. Georgias Senate race might culminate in a runoff election on Dec. 6 if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. Gingrich 2022 Prediction: Senate Will Go +3 to +5 With GOP Pickups in NH, NV, AZ & GA Without Runoff, +44 Seats In House. We also have a Live Forecast for the House.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); We are using the Associated Press's election calls to take races off the board. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. Nate Cohn Alicia Parlapiano See our election dashboard and find your Alicia Parlapiano Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and on average,it was closer to the final resultthan the traditional gold standard, Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2024 March 8, 2023 U.S. Senate, Washington, 2024 Feb. 21, 2023 U.S. Senate, Montana, 2024 Feb. 9, 2023 U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2024 avg. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Click here to change which version of the model you see. Nov. 9, 2022, With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Nate Cohn Ron DeSantis, a hard-right conservative, is facing Representative Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who switched parties. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. Web1 Predictions. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. For the open Senate seat in Ohio, J.D. Figure 1: Scatterplots of seat change by predicted seat change in House and Senate midterm elections, 1946-2018 Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Contests were only counted once per cycle, so the 2013 Massachusetts and New Jersey special elections were omitted because those same seats were also contested in the 2014 November general election. Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. 3 See also. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. Maggie Astor , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave werent just wrong, they were designed to deenergize Democratic voters with negative sentiment. He insisted Democrats would ignore this script and that MAGA extremism would alienate the mainstream. State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Manage Settings Here are the results that mattered most for abortion access. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. Arizonas closely watched races for Senate and governor remained too close to call in the state, where 400,000 ballots in Maricopa County await counting. Maggie Astor See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Arizona Winner: Mark Kelly (D) Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. Abortion clearly shifted the playing field in some of these places, and so did the MAGA extremism of some of the GOP candidates. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. RacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. Does the incumbent in the race consistently overperform their partys baseline in the district? Nov. 9, 2022, The Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are very tight, and vote counting is expected to drag into the week. Second, he has to bring the Republican coalition together, which would require political skill that I dont know that he possesses. . Chris Pappas, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent New Hampshires First Congressional District. However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. Soon, 14 Revolutionary War soldiers will finally rest in peace, Floridas book-ban frenzy targets Nora Roberts, and shes not happy, How Trump made it cool for Republicans to hate their own party, Regulators seize ailing First Republic Bank, sell remains to JPMorgan. Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. Dont expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska wont finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. 2 References. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. Things have changed in this race since when I first rated it. The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. Our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D). GOP Rep. Mark Amodei looks safe for reelection after surviving his primary. Web2022 Senate - State Projections. final pre-election results projection, click here. Heres where we think votes remain. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Lazaro Gamio Its essential to loosening the dark grip of MAGA over the Republican Party. . that guide every prediction he makes. Abortion rights were put to the test in the midterm elections. Redistricting will change everything. GOP Gov. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. Despite endless hopeful invocations of but polls show that people like our positions, the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation from year to year. In the case of the Senate, however, the results indicated that the outcome was likelier to be close to a standoff. that guide every prediction he makes. These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. Republicans may have cost themselves the chance to flip this open seat by picking an extreme nominee, Doug Mastriano. After facing credible charges of child molestation, Moore went on to lose the general election to Democrat Doug Jones, a civil rights lawyer and former U.S. Attorney. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. RCP Gov Map Race Changes. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Albert Sun Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. Looking for the Live House Forecast? Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. Alicia Parlapiano Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. The reason I would even consider a chance for Republicans is similar to Louisiana for Democrats. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, Montana voters rejected a proposal that would have required medical interventions to save those that the state defines as born alive infants. Nov. 9, 2022, Cortez Masto is behind in Nevada at the moment, but there are a lot of votes left in Clark and Washoe, counties home to the state's largest cities. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is narrowly ahead of GOP candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, though Bolduc is within striking distance. You deserve to hear our thinking. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Explore the full list of features on our site map. Alicia Parlapiano The results are displayed in Table 5. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Aside from that, the main action at this hour will be in the House, with a close race in Washingtons 8th District and at least half a dozen in California. Which gives us far more running room to go contest it. Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. Late victories in Nevada and Arizona deal another blow to the Republicans, and to Donald Trump, On top of his other flaws, the former president is a serial vote loser, Several sorts of extremism may have prevented the party from securing a more convincing victory, In a reverse of recent trends, they may have slightly underestimated Democrats, Published since September 1843 to take part in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.. Independent variables were the Democratic margin in the current or most recent presidential election in the state, incumbency status (coded as +1 for Democratic incumbent, 0 for open seats, and -1 for Republican incumbents), and election type (-1 for Republican midterm, 0 for presidential, and +1 for Democratic midterm). Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. | Privacy Policy, The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis. Jason Kao Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. The Party That Wins the White House in 2024 Could Sweep the House and Senate, The Final Prediction for the House and Senate - and How to Watch Election Day Like a Professional. The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. 2 We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. If it is a moderate Republican candidate like Chris Sununu, there is a chance of New Hampshire flipping red. Weve come out on the other side of covid. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. WebRacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. Based on current events and the understanding that senators are elected by the states popular vote rather electoral districts, I will make my predictions. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. What all of these examples demonstrate, however, is that exceptionally popular or unpopular candidates or unusual circumstances can sometimes produce results in Senate contests that are well out of line with what would be expected based on factors such as presidential partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment. Taking control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in these states could ease Democrats ability to pass legislation on an array of issues. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? Polls Underestimated. While Democrats won 94% of contests in states won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Republicans won only 86% of contests in states won by the Republican presidential candidate. Ruth Igielnik . Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. Click here! From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote, Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base which is good! When POLITICOs Election Forecast launched earlier this year, the Senate was rated Lean Republican. After Democrats summer comeback, that rating moved to Toss Up, which is where it ends but with a bullet. These numbers reflect first-choice votes, After the midterms, America and its democracy look stronger, A Republican victory will be much smaller than Democrats feared. Albert Sun The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship.
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